Stories quote a single expert. The problem with quoting one expert is that you will have a negative attitude towards the future.
I prefer to go a different route when trying to gauge the future of the market. I use the MacroMarkets forecast (http://www.macromarkets.com/real-estate/home-price-survey.asp). This is a financial company, started by Robert Shiller (co-founded Case-Shiller Weiss real estate index), which aggregates “a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts”. They are surveyed every quarter regarding the 5-year expectations for future home prices in theUnited States.
I like this method over the single expert since it averages or smoothes out the individual expectations and gives a better overall direction of the market.
Based on the latest December 2011 survey we won’t see positive gains until 2013.
Here is the latest forecast:
2011: decrease of 1.97%
2012: decrease of 0.18%
2013: increase of 1.75%
2014: increase of 2.71%
2015: increase of 3.23%